Understanding the Changing Nature of Work: Inform Programs Serving Low-Income Populations

This report discusses potential changes in the labor market and nature of work over the next 10 to 15 years, with a focus on how these changes might impact low-wage, less-skilled workers and individuals facing barriers to work. It considers several factors that might affect the nature of work going forward, specifically automation and technology, alternative work arrangements, and diverging regional economies.

• Automation and Technology. Considerable research has been conducted over the past several years on the implications of technological advances for the labor market. The findings suggest that many jobs are at elevated risk of being automated in the coming years, although estimates vary across studies, from 10 percent to nearly 50 percent of all jobs. In addition, low-skill, low-wage jobs likely will be the hardest hit. Countering the potential for large job loss, however, is the fact that technology will also create new jobs over time, within the technology sector (e.g., network analyst) and outside it (e.g., jobs in fulfillment centers, with the rise of online commerce).
• Alternative Work Arrangements. This paper examines research on workers in alternative arrangements, defined broadly as work outside a traditional worker-employer relationship, such as independent contractors, including online gig workers, or individuals who work via online platforms (e.g., ridesharing apps); offline gig workers (e.g., construction workers); contract (outsourced) workers; individuals working part-time because they are unable to find full-time work; and workers subject to varying and uncertain work schedules.
• Different Trends by Geography. Growing research documents economic disparities across regions of the country and between large cities and less urban areas. Parts of the Midwest, for example, are economically distressed and suffer from high rates of disability and opioid use, as well as high rates of mortality. Although geographic mobility has helped narrow regional disparities in the past, a decline in mobility beginning in the 1980s has reduced the rate at which they are diminishing. The differences suggest that programs and policies might target these areas but also have larger, positive effects than they would have in other areas. Another reason to consider geography is that the effects of technology and automation are likely to differ, given differences in the types of workers and the types of jobs.

(This report is 56 pages long.)

The researchers identified the following selected findings and recommendations for future research:

1. Job Search and Career Counseling:

• Using data and labor market information to inform job search and development. The abundance of data from online job boards and other sources has made the job search less costly, but barriers to using these data might exist among jobseekers and program staff. Research could examine how both groups search for jobs and consider ways to help them do so more effectively.
• Increasing access to technology. The digital divide has been well documented, with low-income families and low-income areas having much less access to broadband Internet and computers. Research could examine how low-income jobseekers and program staff could better access and use technology to search for jobs, provide services remotely, and stay updated on emerging and declining occupations.

2. Education and Training:

• Using technology in training. Technological advances provide new opportunities in the provision of training. Computer-assisted learning, for example, is being used and tested in K–12 classrooms and could be evaluated in workforce training programs. Research could also examine the ability of online tools to increase access to training (for individuals in underserved areas), reduce its cost, and increase completion rates.
• Researching differences by geography. To guide the effective provision of education and training, ongoing research will be needed on the changing skills requirements across regions, documenting emerging and declining occupations and in-demand skills.

3. Income, Reemployment, and “Making Work Pay.”

• Supporting workers in alternative work arrangements. A small but growing share of U.S. workers have a limited or informal connection to an employer, are unable to find full-time work, or have unpredictable schedules. More research is needed to document the prevalence and effects of these arrangements on workers and their families.
• Researching differences by geography. Ongoing research on the potential and actual job loss due to technology might help identify locations that could benefit from programs to make work pay or support individuals while unemployed.

4. COVID-19 Pandemic:

• Research should continue to establish the best way to support workers and families, including the study of policies enacted in response to the pandemic to inform policy going forward.

• Last Updated:
• Created:
• Resource Publication Date: 2021
• Author(s): Miller, C.
• Funding Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families (ACF)
• Resource Availability: Publicly available
• Posted by: Justin Venneri
• Posted in: Workforce System Strategies